Test Cases for Reentry Survivability Modeling

One approved approach for minimizing the long-term hazards posed by space debris is to reenter space hardware into the atmosphere at end-of-mission or to place hardware in an orbit with a relatively short lifetime. Selection of a short lifetime orbit vice a deorbited reentry into a safe area depends on predictions of the hazards posed by random reentry of the object. If the object is left in orbit, what is the casualty expectation associated with its eventual reentry? Clearly, having high confidence in reentry hazard prediction tools is important to this decision-making process and the final choice can have significant mission and cost impacts. This paper describes a set of test cases that can be used to validate reentry hazard models. The test cases were assembled from reentry cases where "known" and tracked objects reentered the atmosphere and debris from the reentries was subsequently found on the ground and was analyzed. The test cases include best estimates of the state, mass properties, and physical description of each object prior to reentry, the wind profile through which the debris fell (for one case), and the impact location and physical description of each surviving object. The report also summarizes results of metallurgical analyses conducted on surviving debris, which places limits on the maximum temperatures reached during reentry. Details on a specific reentry are included as an example.