Solar Flare Probability depending on Sunspot Characteristics and Their Changes
Abstract
Solar flare prediction has been at the core of space weather research and a number of different approaches have been developed since THEO (McIntosh, 1990) system was introduced. However, many of space weather operation centers, i.e. International Space Environment Service's Regional Warning Centers, still rely on traditional flare prediction methods like THEO. THEO uses the McIntosh classification as the knowledge base for flare prediction and also, rules of thumb are incorporated by a human forecaster, including spot growth, magnetic topology inferred from sunspot structure and previous flare activity. The method is apparently somewhat subjective, because the forecast decision depends on the expertise of an operator and it has not been evaluated statistically. In this study, we have investigated solar flare probability depending on several sunspot characteristics (McIntosh classification, Mt. Wilson magnetic classification, sunspot area and previous flare activity) and their changes for the past three days. For this, we used NOAA sunspot and flare catalog from August 1996 to February 2011. A new index, WFP(Weighted Flare Probability), which includes solar flare strength and its historical probability, is introduced to quantify the effective contribution of flare activity. We found several interesting results as follows. First, WFP index increases not only when the sunspot magnetic complexity increases but also when the magnetic complexity decreases with almost the same proportion. Second, the index also increases for both cases of sunspot area increase and decrease. This result might be the evidence that the change (flux emergence or flux cancelation) of magnetic flux may trigger a flare since sunspot area can be a good proxy of magnetic flux. Third, active regions having significant flare activity history are much more active than those without. We are applying the multi-dimensional regression method to these data and automating the process of THEO. We have a plan to show how this new method works in practice by deploying at the Korean Space Weather Center.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFMSH53B..07L
- Keywords:
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- 7500 SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMY;
- 7519 SOLAR PHYSICS;
- ASTROPHYSICS;
- AND ASTRONOMY / Flares