Centennial Scale Variations in Lake Productivity Linked to Solar Activity

Solar variations on both decadal and centennial timescales have been associated with climate phenomena (van Loon et al., 2004; Hodell et al., 2001; White et al., 1997). The energy received by the Earth at the peak of the solar cycle increases by <0.1%; so the question has remained of how this could be amplified to produce an observable climate response. Recent modeling shows that the response of the Earth's climate system to the 11-year solar cycle may be amplified through stratosphere and ocean feedbacks and has the potential to impact climate variability on a multidecadal to centennial timescales (Meehl et al., 2009). Here, we report a 1000-year record of changes in the stratigraphy and carbon isotope composition of varved lake sediment from Isla Isabela (22°N, 106°W) in the subtropical northeast Pacific. Stable carbon isotopes and carbonate stratigraphy can be used to infer surface productivity in the lake. Our analysis shows variations in primary productivity on centennial timescales and suggests that solar activity may be an important component of Pacific climate variability. A possible response during solar maxima acts to keep the eastern equatorial Pacific cooler and drier than usual, producing conditions similar to a La Niña event. In the region around Isla Isabela peak solar years were characterized by decreased surface temperatures and suppressed precipitation (Meehl et al., 2009), which enhance productivity at Isabela (Kienel et al. 2011). In the future, we plan to analyze the data using advanced time series analysis techniques like the wavelets together with techniques to handle irregularly spaced time series data. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-571672