From research to management: A remote sensing based water quality decision matrix (WQDM) for Tampa Bay, Florida

Significant advances have been made in ocean color remote sensing of water turbidity and water clarity of estuarine waters, yet accurate estimate of the water column chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chla in mg m-3) has been problematic. Here, a novel empirical Chla algorithm was developed and validated for MODIS and SeaWiFS observations between 1998 and 2011 for Tampa Bay, the largest estuary (~1000 km2) in the state of Florida, USA. The algorithm showed robust performance with two independent datasets, with relative mean uncertainties of ~30% and ~50% and RMS uncertainties of ~40% and ~65%,respectively, for Chla ranging between 1.0 and > 30.0 mg m-3. Together with other bio-optical parameters measured from this moderately turbid estuary, these data showed that although the total light absorption in the blue-green wavelengths is dominated by dissolved organic matter, the variability in light penetration (or water clarity) is mainly determined by particulate absorption rather than CDOM absorption. Thus, nutrient reduction management actions that reduce phytoplankton blooms can effectively increase the light availability on the bottom. Long-term Chla time series from SeaWiFS and MODIS observations showed both seasonal and inter-annual variations. On average, river discharge could explain ~60% of the seasonal changes and ~90% of the inter-annual changes, with the latter mainly driven by climate variability (e.g. El Niño and La Niño years) and anomaly events (e.g. tropical cyclones). Significant correlation was found between monthly mean Chla anomalies and monthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.43, p<0.01, N=147), with high Chla associated with El Niño and lower Chla associated with La Niño. Further, a Water Quality Decision Matrix (WQDM) has been established from the satellite-based Chla and water clarity estimates. The WQDM provides complementary and more reliable information to the existing WQDM based on less synoptic and less frequent field measurements. These results support the decision making efforts of the management agencies that regulate nutrient discharge to the bay, and similar approaches may be established for other estuaries where field data are much more limited than for TampaBay.