Quantifying the impacts of global disasters
Abstract
The US Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California Geological Survey, and other entities are developing a Tsunami Scenario, depicting a realistic outcome of a hypothetical but plausible large tsunami originating in the eastern Aleutian Arc, affecting the west coast of the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The scenario includes earth-science effects, damage and restoration of the built environment, and social and economic impacts. Like the earlier ShakeOut and ARkStorm disaster scenarios, the purpose of the Tsunami Scenario is to apply science to quantify the impacts of natural disasters in a way that can be used by decision makers in the affected sectors to reduce the potential for loss. Most natural disasters are local. A major hurricane can destroy a city or damage a long swath of coastline while mostly sparing inland areas. The largest earthquake on record caused strong shaking along 1500 km of Chile, but left the capital relatively unscathed. Previous scenarios have used the local nature of disasters to focus interaction with the user community. However, the capacity for global disasters is growing with the interdependency of the global economy. Earthquakes have disrupted global computer chip manufacturing and caused stock market downturns. Tsunamis, however, can be global in their extent and direct impact. Moreover, the vulnerability of seaports to tsunami damage can increase the global consequences. The Tsunami Scenario is trying to capture the widespread effects while maintaining the close interaction with users that has been one of the most successful features of the previous scenarios. The scenario tsunami occurs in the eastern Aleutians with a source similar to the 2011 Tohoku event. Geologic similarities support the argument that a Tohoku-like source is plausible in Alaska. It creates a major nearfield tsunami in the Aleutian arc and peninsula, a moderate tsunami in the US Pacific Northwest, large but not the maximum in Hawaii, and the largest plausible tsunami in southern California. To support the analysis of global impacts, we begin with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach which account for >40% of the imports to the United States. We expand from there throughout California for the first level economic analysis. We are looking to work with Alaska and Hawaii, especially on similar economic issues in ports, over the next year and to expand the analysis to consideration of economic interactions between the regions.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFMNH14A..08J
- Keywords:
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- 4313 NATURAL HAZARDS / Extreme events