Development of a Bayesian approach to assess the probability of concealed active faults using Helium isotope ratios: An example from the western Tottori area, SW Japan

In Japan, numerous research projects have been carried out to assess the long-term stability of the geological environment including in particular, the spatio-temporal distribution of volcanism and active faulting in the context siting of a geological repository for the long-term (0.1 - 1 Ma) disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Of particular concern is the existence of active faulting that shows no expression at the surface and thus not necessarily recorded in currently published active fault maps. Recent research carried out in the western Tottori area, southwest Japan, has implied the potential of using He-3/He-4 ratios as a means of providing indirect evidence of the existence of source fault(s) that caused the 6 Oct 2000 Tottori earthquake but which had no apparent surface indication [e.g. Umeda et al. 2011]. This is based on the theory that mantle helium can reach the shallow crustal depths due to faults in the crust acting as pathways [e.g. Kennedy et al. 1997]. Here we introduce a new technique based on Bayesian inference in an effort to quantify this phenomenon and present our preliminary findings. In the Bayesian paradigm, we make a priori assumptions based on the tectonic setting of the study area as a starting point. One a priori assumption could be that 'unknown' faults do not exist far from 'known' faults. Depending on the degree of conservation required in the first step, 2-D a priori probability distributions are calculated using kernel functions with varying values of standard deviation. The recently acquired helium isotope ratios are then combined to the a priori probability distributions using Bayes' rule to produce modified a posteriori probabilities that is expected to better capture the hidden faults. The potential of the methodology to incorporate other information such as GPS data will also be presented and discussed. References Kennedy, B. M., Y. K. Kharaka, W. C. Evans, A. Ellwood, D. J. DePaolo, J. Thordsen, G. Ambats, and R. H. Mariner (1997), Mantle fluids in the San Andreas fault system, California, Science, 278, 1278-1281. Umeda, K., K. Asamori, T. Negi, and T. Kusano (2011), A large intraplate earthquake triggered by latent magmatism, Jour. Geophys. Res., 116, B01207, doi:10.1029/2010JB007963.