Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Recent Developments and Extensions
Abstract
The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been working with international partners to develop a Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The collaboratory is designed to support a global program for conducting prospective forecasting experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluating the results using transparent, community-accepted criteria specified in advance. There are now four testing centers in California, New Zealand, Japan, and Europe, with a total of 229 models under evaluation, and a fifth is being developed in China. In this presentation, we describe how the testing centers have evolved to meet the CSEP design goals and share our experiences in operating the centers since their inception. In particular, we detail the cyberinfrastructure improvements to the W. M. Keck Foundation Testing Center at SCEC. This prototype center has been operational since September 1, 2007, and currently hosts intermediate-term and short-term forecasts, both alarm-based and rate-based, for California and the Western Pacific, as well as for the global testing region. Current efforts are focused on the reduction of testing latencies and procedures for the evaluation of externally hosted forecasting experiments, with the goal of supporting the new USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting. We describe the open-source CSEP software available for personal use by scientists to perform independent study and evaluation of their models prior submitting them to the Testing Center (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss how the CSEP infrastructure is being applied to geodetic transient detection and the evaluation of ShakeAlert system for earthquake early warning, and how CSEP procedures will be adapted to ground motion prediction experiments.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFMIN13A1499L
- Keywords:
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- 1908 INFORMATICS / Cyberinfrastructure;
- 1934 INFORMATICS / International collaboration;
- 1978 INFORMATICS / Software re-use;
- 7223 SEISMOLOGY / Earthquake interaction;
- forecasting;
- and prediction