Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region
Abstract
Under a suite of global climate change scenarios, the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) and follow-up studies projected major changes in the Mediterranean region, in particular as a "Hot Spot" in hydrological change. In this study we use the CMIP5 multi-model simulations and projections to explore hydroclimatic changes in the Mediterranean region. Our analysis considers 21st century greenhouse gas forced changes and associated uncertainties, including climate model biases. CMIP5 projections are compared with those from the CMIP3 ensemble, at the basis of the IPCC-AR4. Forced changes are discussed in the context of observed decadal changes and regional variability sources. Predictability of future long-term changes in this region is speculated.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFMGC53A1259M
- Keywords:
-
- 1616 GLOBAL CHANGE / Climate variability;
- 1630 GLOBAL CHANGE / Impacts of global change