Assessing Holocene water level changes of Lake Turkana, Kenya with potential linkages to monsoon variability

This study focuses on better defining water level variability in the past 10 ka for Lake Turkana, Kenya. The water level of Lake Turkana was approximately 90m higher than today ca. 8 ka years ago, and in the past century lake levels have varied by up to 15 m. Lake level is especially sensitive to shifts in water balance with changes in regional rainfall linked to the relative strength of the Indian Ocean Monsoon. Variations in monsoonal precipitation in Kenya may be controlled by distinct modes of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with one mode associated with increased sea surface temperatures and concomitant heavy rainfall in the Turkana basin, and the other mode resulting in low precipitation. Well preserved beach ridges up to 90 m above present water level occur around the lake representing a record of varying elevations of lake level still-stands during the Holocene. Along this prograded strand plain there is evidence of a shift in human subsistence from fishing villages to pastoral encampments, possibly associated with pronounced mid-Holocene drying and a precipitous (>30 m) fall in lake level ca. between 7 and 5 ka. However, a recent GPS campaign of beach ridges on the east and west sides of the lake reveal variability in highstand beach ridge elevations, implying deferential tectonic deformation across the basin and possible crustal warping due to hydroisostatic processes. Radiocarbon dating of aquatic shells will resolve the ages of beach ridges and these ages will be tested by direct dating of littoral quartz grains by OSL. Stratigraphic exposures of this littoral system reveal new evidence for lake still-stands, transgressions and regressions. Ultimately, the data will constrain a basin hydrologic model to assess the catchment changes and evaporative conditions required to yield the tens of meters of lake level change in the Holocene and provide new insights into the magnitude and linkage to monsoon variability.