Is the Bakken Formation the Answer to our Energy Independence?
Abstract
The Bakken Formation has garnered substantial attention due to an unprecedented surge in US domestic oil production, much of it from shale oil from the Bakken. The sheer size of the formation coupled with technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking have led many, including the former head of BP, to speculate that domestic shale oil will free the US from its dependence upon foreign oil entirely. Shale oil is indeed likely to provide a significant contribution to our domestic energy portfolio, but real problems exist in the form of physical limitations. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the most important fields in the Bakken Formation are depleting rapidly. Mckenzie and Mountrail Counties, the two largest oil producing counties in North Dakota, account for over 50% of North Dakota's total oil production. However, Mountrail County appears to have hit peak production between the months of March and April 2012. The decline is especially apparent in the Mountrail County's two largest producing fields, suggesting that much of production occurs in concentrated areas and many of these fields with high profitability are undergoing rapid production declines. In order to maintain a consistent level of production and offset these growing declines, an increasing number of wells must be drilled throughout the lifetime of a field. Energy Return on Investment (EROI), the ratio of energy outputs over energy inputs, can be utilized to determine the profitability of resource base. Preliminary EROI analysis indicates that newly developed fields in the Bakken are less profitable and yield far less energy than the larger producing predecessors such as those in Mountrail County. Will the smaller fields ultimately compensate for the steep declines witnessed in the larger fields? If current trends continue, ultimate production from the Bakken will be far less than predicted. This poses significant financial implications for the future of shale oil and US energy independence.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFMGC23C1089W
- Keywords:
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- 0400 BIOGEOSCIENCES