Humboldt Bay Vertical Reference System Working Group: unraveling tectonic and eustatic factors of sea level rise in northern California, Humboldt Bay

Sea-level rise is a critical factor in managing estuarine ecosystems, maintaining public infrastructure, and mitigating geologic hazards along north coastal California. The coastal region between Fort Bragg, California and Vancouver Island experiences ongoing land-level changes due to Cascadia subduction zone tectonics. These tectonic land-level changes sufficiently modify relative sea level such that sea-level rise cannot be accurately estimated without determining the tectonic contribution. We use tide gages and precise level-loop surveys to observe modern land and water surface elevations around Humboldt Bay. These modern data, combined with historic survey data, will be used to deconfound the various factors contributing to relative sea level change. Independent analysis of existing NOAA tide gages and EarthScope CGPS stations indicate 2.5 mm/yr of land subsidence near Humboldt Bay and 2 mm/yr of land uplift in Crescent City. Presuming the bulk of the strain accumulation is due to the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone, these data suggest Humboldt Bay is west of the locked zone, not to the east as previously reported by several researchers.