A critical evaluation of bias and uncertainty the use of downscaled climate projections in water resources impacts modeling
Abstract
In this talk I will compare several recent studies that used downscaled climate projections to force hydrologic models in order to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water supply, focusing primarily on the Colorado River. The talk will focus on two related aspects -- the treatment of climate projection uncertainty through the choice of a model ensemble, and the use of bias correction methods for the climate model variables that are input to the hydrologic models. Bias correction has proven necessary not only for downscaling of global models, but also for conditioning regional climate model output as well. Why is bias correction used? Does bias correction of GCMs and RCMs really yield "better" simulations of hydrology. How does bias correction influence an ensemble of model projections? What are the implications of very large bias corrections in precipitation that are needed in the Colorado River region, when some climate models that are operating in a very different hydrologic regime than the real world?
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFM.U23A..04B
- Keywords:
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- 1630 GLOBAL CHANGE / Impacts of global change;
- 1637 GLOBAL CHANGE / Regional climate change;
- 1847 HYDROLOGY / Modeling