Applying the Stochastic Programming with Recourse to water allocation analysis

How to decide strategies implementation priority is an important issue when making decision. Strategies efficiency and cost is the main consideration for decision maker. Therefore, this study proposes a decision model which considering long-term and short-term strategies simultaneously to find out the best combination. The model precision requirement is different between long-term strategies and short-term strategies. That makes the analysis more complex and difficult. Hence, this study proposes a decision model based on stochastic programming with recourse to solving this puzzle and the model called SPRDM. The first stage is calculating water shortage and probability of short-term water shortage event by long-term water allocation simulation. The second stage is optimizing the best combination with minimum cost under water demand is fulfilled. SPRDM is suit for decision model because SPRDM can consider long-term strategy, short-term strategy and uncertainty factors. The results can be the reference when government makes decision.