Can the Gila River reduce risk in the Colorado River Basin?
Abstract
The Colorado River is the most important source of water in the southwest United States and Northern Mexico, providing water to approximately 35 million people and 4-5 million acres of irrigated lands. To manage the water resources of the basin, estimated to be about 17 million acre-feet (MAF) of undepleted supplies per year, managers use reservoir facilities that can store more than 60 MAF. As the demands on the water resources of the basin approach or exceed the average annual supply, and with average flow projected to decrease due to climate change, smart water management is vital for its sustainability. To quantify the future risk of depleting reservoir storage, Rajagopalan et al. (2009) developed a water-balance model and ran it under scenarios based on historical, paleo-reconstructed and future projections of flows, and different management alternatives. That study did not consider the impact of the Gila River, which enters the Colorado River below all major reservoirs and U.S. diversions. Due to intensive use in Central Arizona, the Gila only has significant inflows to the Colorado in wet years. However, these irregular inflows could beneficially influence system reliability in the US by helping to meet a portion of the 1.5 MAF delivery obligations to Mexico. To help quantify the potential system reliability benefit of the Gila River, we modify the Rajagopalan et al (2009) model to incorporate simulated Gila River inflows. These new data inputs to the water balance model are based on historical flows and tree-ring reconstructions of flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin (at Lee's Ferry), the Lower Colorado River Basin (tributary inflows), and the intermittent flows from the Gila River which are generated using extreme value analysis methods. Incorporating Gila River inflows, although they are highly variable and intermittent, reduces the modeled cumulative risk of reservoir depletion by 4 to 11% by 2057, depending on the demand schedule, reservoir operation guidelines, and climate change scenario assumptions. This potential risk mitigation could be at least partly realized through enhancements to current management practices, possibly in the Gila River, that could improve the water supply reliability for all stakeholders in the Colorado River Basin.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2012
- Bibcode:
- 2012AGUFM.H23L..07W
- Keywords:
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- 1880 HYDROLOGY / Water management;
- 1884 HYDROLOGY / Water supply