Genesis of Ural Blocking and its effect on East Asia Winter Monsoon

Atmospheric blocking makes the zonal flow stagnating and this change results in various phenomena of synoptic scale. In recent years, unprecedented summer heat in 2010 over Russia and severe cold in 2012 over Europe are noted as phenomena related with Atmospheric blocking. Many theories explain the genesis mechanism of atmospheric blocking. Among them, AO and ENSO are considered as the main mechanism. Atmospheric blocking made frequently in Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. By comparison the blocking over Ural region has occurred less frequently, its effect on East Asia is important especially in winter. Previous study suggests that the Ural blocking is related to development of Siberian High (Wang et al, 2007). In this study, genesis and intensification mechanism of Ural blocking is investigated using observation and reanalysis data. Next, the relationship Ural blocking and East Asia Winter Monsoon is studied using the statistical method. First, to investigate the genesis and intensification mechanism of Ural blocking, some climatic elements of the cryosphere and the tropics are using lagged correlation and EOF analysis. When we detect the blocking phenomena over Ural region, method of Barriopedro et al(2006) is used. Second, effect of Ural blocking on East Asia Winter Monsoon is studied using the statistical method. Using the above result, Statistical forecast model suitable for East Asia Winter Monsoon is built.