Changes in nitrate concentrations and loads in United Kingdom watersheds since 1868: Evidence for land use change as a dominant driver and ineffective mitigation

Nitrate concentrations and fluxes in many of the world's rivers have increased over the latter part of the 20th Century leading to freshwater and, more frequently, marine eutrophication. This has largely been linked to agricultural intensification which has increased food production via a combination of improved methods, crop varieties, pest control technologies, mechanisation and fertiliser use. The area of land under intensive production has also increased in many watersheds. Here we analyse long term water quality records from a number of UK rivers to assess temporal patterns of nitrate concentrations and fluxes and to identify driving factors. The data, which include the world's longest record of nitrate concentrations from the River Thames, London (1868 to 2008), show that dramatic and sustained increases in nitrate concentrations and fluxes occurred after periods of substantial land use change including the conversion of significant areas of permanent pasture to arable production in the 1940s and 1960s and increases in fertiliser use in the 1960s. Grassland to arable conversion can release large quantities of nitrate due to the enhanced mineralisation of the extra soil organic nitrogen which accumulates in pasture systems. Recent attempts to reverse these increases, such as widespread restrictions of nitrogen inputs have, thus far, been relatively ineffective, although there have been recent indications that levels have stabilised in some watersheds. Our analysis clearly shows the dominance of land use change over other potential drivers such as waste water emission, climatic and hydrological changes and suggests that current measures for the mitigation of large-scale diffuse pollution based on limiting fertiliser use are not drastic enough to reverse significantly the increases in riverine nitrate concentrations which have been observed. Analysis of the long term data also shows that trend detection is problematic for periods less than about 15 years, without a longer term historical context. The data and associated analysis support the continued maintenance of very long benchmark monitoring sites to identify trends and adequately assess the drivers of environmental change. Nitrate concentrations measured in the river Thames since 1868 showing drammatic increases in the latter half of the 20th century. Red line shows annual average concentration.