The coming 2011 Draconids meteor shower

A detailed analysis of the coming 2011 Draconids outburst is performed with different methods. The first step was to post predict the 1933 and 1946 storms. Difficulties arise when dealing with the 1985 outburst, since no unique orbital solution is able to explain the different outbursts observed during this year. This fact emphasizes our need to better know the parent body comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. Fortunately, the coming outburst will be caused by the trails ejected in 1980 and 1907, already encountered in the past. No storm is expected, but the level of the shower is poorly constrained. A first highly entertaining outburst is expected on 2011 October 8 around 17h UT. The second and the main outburst is expected around 20h UT the same day. The level of the shower will be of a few hundreds (around 600 per hour).