Limitations When Using Proxies of Atmospheric Circulation to Infer Regional Temperature

One objective of ice core paleoclimatology is to reconstruct past variability of climate parameters such as surface air temperature. Stable isotope ratios of ice cores collected from some locations can be used with confidence to reconstruct regional air temperature. Other glaciochemical records (e.g., major ions) have been used as proxies for regional atmospheric circulation patterns, including the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern, typically based on the strength of semi-permanent sea level pressure centers such as the Icelandic Low and Aleutian Low. The Arctic Oscillation and Pacific North American pattern are associated with regional air temperature anomalies, and consequently ice core proxies of these circulation patterns could be used to infer paleotemperature patterns. However, detailed analysis of the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset (1871-2008) for the Northern Hemisphere winter suggests that these atmospheric circulation patterns do not always result in the same regional air temperature anomalies. A principal component analysis of detrended and area-weighted winter (December-March) temperature and sea level pressure was performed, and the leading eigenmodes were compared, along with the winter mean positions of the Icelandic and Aleutian Lows. Robust results based on multiple statistical analyses were obtained only when the extreme seasonal values of these variables were examined. Although statistically significant results were obtained when looking at temperature patterns associated with specific sea level pressure patterns and the positions of the Icelandic and Aleutian Lows, more consistent relationships were found when examining sea level pressure patterns associated with the leading eigenmodes of temperature. The seasons of extreme eigenvalues of the leading temperature eigenmodes are associated with mean positions of the Icelandic and Aleutian Lows at climatologically extreme north/south and west/east locations, respectively. Results suggest that in addition to changes in strength, variability in the positions of sea level pressure centers may impact the variability of impurities in the ice core records. Finally, in terms of calibrating ice core records with observational and reanalysis data, the observed strong interannual variability of these air temperature and sea level pressure patterns (as reflected by the leading eigenmodes) and mean positions of the semi-permanent low pressure centers stresses the importance of accurate annual dating of an ice core record over the calibration period for a robust calibration and reconstruction; an offset of one year for just part of the ice core record may alter the results significantly.