Isotopic Signatures of Meteorolgoical Drivers of Inflow Variability in Apline Areas of the Snowy Mountains, Australia

Hydrometeorological instrument records in Australia are particularly short, rarely spanning more than 100-150 years. Analysis of these records has revealed the impact of short term climate variability cycles such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on drought and flood frequency. The impacts of longer-term climate cycles not repetitively recorded in the instrument record are less well understood. Palaeoclimate archives have begun to reveal the significance of cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and their interaction with ENSO as a driver of flood and drought. Our research is focused on field data collection and atmospheric modelling studies to build an archive of distinctive meteorological events and their characteristic precipitation stable oxygen isotope signature. Characteristic isotope signatures of particular weather systems were identified from analysis of real time precipitation and snowpack samples. Together with water vapour trajectory modelling, this study has shown strong agreement of with conventional models of isotopic behaviour associated with temperature/uplift and circulatory isotopic fractionation. More depleted signatures have been associated with "East-Coast Lows" and neutral signatures with localised convective activity associated with warm air masses originating in central Australia. Cold fronts are associated with cool air masses and water vapour trajectories from higher latitudes the Southern Ocean and have an intermediate signature. The overall objective of this research is to understand dominant drivers of precipitation variability such as ENSO-PDO (and other) cycles and their impacts on the hydrology of the Snowy Mountains region. Development of this capability would provide for better informed water resource planning and decision making in the Snowy Mountains region. As we continue to build our database of isotopic signatures of distinct precipitation events, we will build our capacity to interpret dominant weather pattern controls on inflow variability in relation to ENSO-PDO (and other) climate states across oxygen isotope palaeoclimate archive. This will allow development of inflow forecasting models of higher confidence for the alpine region and headwaters of the Snowy, Murrumbidgee and Murray-Darling Rivers.