Real-time Tsunami Flooding Forecasts of the 2011 Japanese Tsunami
Abstract
The 2011 Japanese tsunami was the first Pacific-wide tsunami with real-time forecasts of damaging flooding outside the source region. The flooding forecasts were based on multiple, well-positioned, near-field, deep-ocean tsunami measurements. The Japanese tsunami demonstrated, for the 30th time, the assimilation of tsunami measurements from the deep ocean into accurate inundation numerical models produces effective and accurate forecasts of coastal tsunami impacts in real-time. The analysis confirms that deep-ocean tsunami measurements, combined with accurate tsunami models, provide a robust measure of tsunami energy that, in turn, provides the necessary information to assess the physical attributes of a tsunami source in real-time. Accurate assessment of the Japanese tsunami source energy allowed for quick and accurate forecast of the global propagation patterns and impacts on coastlines. Use of the forecast source scenario for tsunami inundation modeling for Japan coastlines shows promise for improved local tsunami forecast and warnings. This robust tsunami energy assessment also shows promise for a new tsunami magnitude scale, based on tsunami source energy.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFMNH32A..02B
- Keywords:
-
- 4263 OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL / Ocean predictability and prediction;
- 4273 OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL / Physical and biogeochemical interactions;
- 4304 NATURAL HAZARDS / Oceanic;
- 4341 NATURAL HAZARDS / Early warning systems