Modeling of Tsunami Propagation and Inundation in the Aegean Sea

Several tsunami forecasting systems have been developed based on pre-computed tsunami scenario databases with the aim to provide early warning to tsunami-prone regions worldwide. NOAA's tsunami forecasting system for the United States is such a system, based on the concept of a pre-computed tsunami scenario database consisting of 100km x 50km fault planes with a slip value of 1m, referred to as tsunami source functions. These source functions are placed along the subduction zones in several rows, covering known faults throughout the major ocean basins. Linearity of the tsunami propagation in the open ocean allows scaling and/or combination of the pre-computed tsunami source functions since propagation of tsunamis in deep sea is linear. In real time, a specific tsunami scenario can be obtained by inverting deep-ocean buoy measurements providing initial and boundary conditions for site-specific, high-resolution, nonlinear forecast models. The database can also be used to generate different scenario events to produce tsunami inundation maps for target shorelines. To date, tsunami source functions have not been computed along the subduction zones in Aegean Sea even though there are considerable number of tsunami events causing damages. Although one might argue that the possibility of such an event is rare, the coastlines are densely populated, developed, and hosts millions of tourists during the summer months. Therefore, even though the risk of an event might be small, the hazard is high. Considering the long shorelines and the general lack of public knowledge about preparedness, a tsunami event in the region would be disastrous. A database for historical tsunami events in the Aegean Sea has been compiled, providing potential source locations. This data has allowed us to create a tsunami propagation database for Aegean Sea. Once finalized, this pre-computed scenario database will be extremely useful in developing tsunami resilient communities in the region.