Increased risk from Atlantic tropical cyclones with rising temperatures
Abstract
Predicting how tropical cyclone activity will change in a warmer world has proven to be an elusive target. Warmer sea surface temperatures are favourable to tropical cyclones; but this may be offset by increased vertical wind shear. Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity is hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we construct an independent record of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity based on storm surge statistics from tide gauges, which we relate to changes in global temperature patterns. We find that the most extreme events are especially sensitive to warming. Projected temperature patterns are statistically downscaled and we find that a 21st century warming of 1.2°C warming would drive a 3-5 fold increase in the frequency of events of Katrina magnitude (5-95%). The dramatically increased risk depends on the spatial distribution of the temperature rise with highest sensitivity from tropical Atlantic, central America and the Indian ocean.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFMGC51D1005G
- Keywords:
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- 3238 MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS / Prediction;
- 4564 OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL / Tsunamis and storm surges;
- 3372 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES / Tropical cyclones;
- 4313 NATURAL HAZARDS / Extreme events