Forecasting Land-Use and Land-Cover in the Great Plains Using Scenario-Based Modeling

The U.S. Geological Survey LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon storage under various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). As part of this assessment, the FORE-SCE (FOREcasting SCEnarios of future land cover) model is being used to project land use and land cover (LULC) change annually through 2050. Downscaled IPCC scenarios were used to project LULC change by Omernik Level II Ecoregions, beginning with the Great Plains. Scenarios consistent with SRES storylines A1B, A2, B1, and B2 were developed using the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE), historical land-use histories from the USGS Land Cover Trends project, and workshops of land-use experts. The FORE-SCE model was then used to create spatially explicit LULC maps at a 250-meter pixel resolution to show differences in projected land cover change between scenarios. Economically-based storylines had large increases in agriculture and a loss of natural land covers due to the high demand for agricultural commodities. Environmentally-based scenarios had stable to slight increases in wetlands and grasslands due to conservation of natural land cover. This poster will present maps and results of scenario-based LULC change for the Great Plains.