Drought-Caused Forest Decline In The Trans-Baikal Lake Area

One of the important consequences of observed and predicted climate change is regional desertification and conversion of forest lands into steppes. We documented progressive forest decline in the trans-Baikal Lake mountains (center point coordinates ~ 51°30'N/116°30'E). This area has a sever continental climate and is a transition area between the Siberian taiga and Mongolian steppes and deserts. Forests are dominated by birch and occupy north-facing mountains slopes (with elevations up to 1200 m). Southern facing slopes are typically covered by grass communities. Analysis of field measurements and satellite temporal data showed an increasing forest decline during the last decades (i.e, 1990-2010). The typical pattern of forest decline was ring-like with the forest die-back starting in the boundary area around the outside of the stand within the forest-grass transition zone. This decline was likely, caused by decreases in precipitation and soil water content. During the last two decades summer precipitation decrease was > 10% (P>0.05), and is now 270 ±30 mm/yr. Similarly, hydrothermal index value decreased to about 12% (P>0.05). Satellite-derived forest decline correlates with precipitation and hydrothermal index decreases. Soil studies showed highest water content values within soils of healthy stands, with minimum values within the dead stand areas, and intermediate within the transition zone. Satellite - based estimates of the total area with drought-caused forest decline was about 106 ha. Along with the observed decline of birch stands, two others climate-caused phenomena were noted within the study and adjacent areas during the last decades: a significant increase of fire frequency and decrease of lake surface area.