An Approach to Understanding Complex Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses to Climate Disruption in the Chesapeake Bay Region
Abstract
In this paper we describe the application of a proven methodology for modeling the complex social and economic interactions of a system under stress to the regional issues that are tied to global climate disruption. Under the auspices of the GAIA project (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu), we have investigated simulating the complex interplay between climate, politics, society, industry, and the environment in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and associated geographic areas of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. This Chesapeake Bay simulation draws on interrelated geophysical and climate models to support decision-making analysis about the Bay. In addition to physical models, however, human activity is also incorporated via input and output calculations. For example, policy implications are modeled in relation to business activities surrounding fishing, farming, industry and manufacturing, land development, and tourism. This approach fosters collaboration among subject matter experts to advance a more complete understanding of the regional impacts of climate change. Simulated interactive competition, in which teams of experts are assigned conflicting objectives in a controlled environment, allow for subject exploration which avoids trivial solutions that neglect the possible responses of affected parties. Results include improved planning, the anticipation of areas of conflict or high risk, and the increased likelihood of developing mutually acceptable solutions.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFMGC24C..08S
- Keywords:
-
- 1630 GLOBAL CHANGE / Impacts of global change;
- 1637 GLOBAL CHANGE / Regional climate change;
- 1902 INFORMATICS / Community modeling frameworks;
- 6334 POLICY SCIENCES / Regional planning