Anticipated impacts of climate warming on ecosystems in Interior Alaska
Abstract
Future climate scenarios predict a roughly 5 degree increase in mean annual air temperatures for the Alaskan Interior over the next 80 years. This is expected to be enough to initiate permafrost degradation in Interior Alaska which could lead to widespread thermokarst and talik development and potentially a thicker seasonally thawed (active) layer. These changes could dramatically affect hydrology, ground surface topography and vegetation. Forecasting ecological responses to climate warming is complicated by many factors including variations in soil type, precipitation, surface and ground water hydrology, vegetation, slope, aspect, fire prevalence, and the thermal state of permafrost. We are making field measurements and time series repeat imagery at upland and lowland landscapes to determine where and what ecosystem processes may be most susceptible for rapid or unpredictable changes with climate warming or changing land use activities. By integrating existing cryospheric (permafrost and snow), hydrologic and vegetation succession modeling capabilities we hope to enhance our ability to predict how climate change and other stressors may affect ecosystem dynamics and fire susceptibility. We will include the effects of non-climate related anthropogenic stressors like changes in land use activities and infrastructure development. Numerous electrical resistivity geophysical measurements have been made across a variety of landscapes to investigate how vegetation, soils, and land use relates to permafrost distribution. Our project results will be synthesized into a spatially-explicit decision support system to assist with land use management decision-making for Interior Alaska. This Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based tool is being developed through a combination of field work and modeling. We will identify challenges for management activities given the projected ecosystem response to anticipated climate change by the end-of-the century. This presentation will summarize the first year of research results from this multi-agency, multidisciplinary research project. The project team includes more than 20 researchers, collaborators, students and land users that are actively working on this research program. Results will include geophysical measurements of surface soils and permafrost, the first hydrologic measurements across the Tanana Flats lowlands and the glacier fed Jarvis Creek, repeat imagery of landscapes exhibiting change over time, vegetation mapping, and hydrologic and ecosystem simulations.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFM.C41B0393D
- Keywords:
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- 0702 CRYOSPHERE / Permafrost;
- 0704 CRYOSPHERE / Seasonally frozen ground;
- 0706 CRYOSPHERE / Active layer;
- 0768 CRYOSPHERE / Thermal regime