Springtime high surface ozone events over the western United States: Quantifying the role of stratospheric intrusions

As the National Ambient Air Quality (NAAQS) standard for ozone (O_{3}) is lowered, it pushes closer to policy-relevant background levels (O_{3} concentrations that would exist in the absence of North American anthropogenic emissions), making attainment more difficult with local controls. We quantify the Asian and stratospheric components of this North American background, with a primary focus on the western United States. Prior work has identified this region as a hotspot for deep stratospheric intrusions in spring. We conduct global simulations at 200 km and 50 km horizontal resolution with the GFDL AM3 model, including a stratospheric O_{3} tracer and two sensitivity simulations with anthropogenic emissions from Asia and North America turned off. The model is evaluated with a suite of in situ and satellite measurements during the NOAA CalNex campaign (May-June 2010). The model reproduces the principle features in the observed surface to near tropopause distribution of O_{3} along the California coast, including its latitudinal variation and the development of regional high-O_{3} episodes. Four deep tropopause folds are diagnosed and we find that the remnants of these stratospheric intrusions are transported to the surface of Southern California and Western U.S. Rocky Mountains, contributing 10-30 ppbv positive anomalies relative to the simulated campaign mean stratospheric component in the model surface layer. We further examine the contribution of North American background, including its stratospheric and Asian components, to the entire distribution of observed MDA8 O_{3} at 12 high-elevation CASTNet sites in the Mountain West. We find that the stratospheric O_{3} tracer constitutes 50% of the North American background, and can enhance surface maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O_{3} by 20 ppb when observed surface O_{3} is in the range of 60-80 ppbv. Our analysis highlights the potential for natural sources such as deep stratospheric intrusions to contribute to high surface O_{3} episodes in the western U.S., representing a major challenge if the NAAQS were to be tightened. We further demonstrate the potential for using satellite (AIRS and OMI) measurements of total column O_{3} to develop space-based criteria to define these exceptional events in support of regional air quality management.