Transient Aseismic Slip in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: From Monitoring to Useful Real-time Hazards Information
Abstract
The Cascadia subduction zone, extending from northern California to Vancouver Island, has a 10,000 year record of earthquakes > M8.5 at intervals of several hundred years, with the last major event (~M9) in 1700. Agencies in CA, OR, WA, and BC are raising public awareness of the hazards posed by a repeat Cascadia earthquake and its ensuing tsunami. Because most of the subduction interface is now seismically quiet, an interface event M6 or larger would generate intense public concern that it could be a potential foreshock of a great earthquake. Cascadia residents are also interested in the episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events that recur months to years apart: strong evidence implies these aseismic events represent accelerated interface slip downdip of the seismogenic zone. Simple mechanics implies ETS events temporarily increase the stressing rate on the locked zone. ETS events in northern Cascadia recur at fairly regular intervals and produced roughly similar patterns of deformation. However, an unusually large ETS event or increased interface seismicity would certainly prompt public officials and local residents to expect scientists to quickly determine the implications for a major Cascadia earthquake. Earthquake scientists generally agree that such “situations of concern” warrant close monitoring, but attempts to quantify potential probability changes are in very early stages. With >30 borehole strainmeters and >100 GPS stations of the NSF-funded Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) in Cascadia, geodesists must develop a well-organized real-time monitoring scheme for interpreting aseismic deformation, with an accompanying public communication strategy. Two previously-exercised monitoring and communication protocols could be adapted for Cascadia. During the Parkfield, California, Earthquake Experiment, geodetic signals were assigned alert levels based on their rareness in the past record, on confirmation by more than one instrument, and on consistency with aseismic slip near the expected Parkfield hypocenter. In Japan, the Tokai Earthquake Prediction Experiment assesses strainmeter and tiltmeter anomalies based on their consistency with slip near the anticipated nucleation point of the next Tokai earthquake. Earthquake scientists unfamiliar with these two projects often presume that releasing uncertain “pre-event” information will have negative consequences, such as dangerous, unnecessary evacuations. Emergency managers are better qualified to plan effective communication, but many have experience only with post-earthquake information, and multi-state and international discussions are stymied by lack of funds for non-federal officials to travel outside their states or countries. Both the Parkfield and Tokai efforts have included pre-planning with emergency management officials. The critical public message remains that communities must plan for major Cascadia earthquakes to occur without warning. But every effort should still be made to recognize a foreshock or aseismic precursor, which could save lives in Cascadia coastal communities facing tsunami impact 10-20 minutes after a seismic rupture. Even if no pre-earthquake signals are observed, geodetic data will track post-seismic deformation, which may contain clues to the timing of large aftershocks.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFMNH33A1375R
- Keywords:
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- 7240 SEISMOLOGY / Subduction zones;
- 8163 TECTONOPHYSICS / Rheology and friction of fault zones;
- 8170 TECTONOPHYSICS / Subduction zone processes