Physical Model of Earthquake Ionospheric Precursors (Invited)

The GPS derived ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) disturbances before earthquakes were discovered in the last years using global and regional TEC maps, TEC measurements over individual stations as well as measurements along individual GPS satellite passes. For strong mid-latitudinal earthquakes the seismo-ionospheric anomalies look like local TEC enhancements or decreases located in the vicinity of the forthcoming earthquake epicenter. Such structures are generated in the ionosphere for several days prior to the main shock. The amplitude of plasma modification reaches the value of 30-90% relative to the non-disturbed level. The zone of the anomaly maximum manifestation extends larger than 1500 km in latitude and 3500-4000 km in longitude. In case of strong low-latitudinal earthquakes there are effects related with the modification of the equatorial F2-region anomaly: deepening or filling of the ionospheric electron density trough over the magnetic equator. The possible physical mechanism which can cause such anomalies has been proposed. We consider that the most probable reason of the NmF2 and TEC disturbances observed before the earthquakes is the vertical drift of the F2-region ionospheric plasma under the influence of the zonal electric field of seismogenic origin related with the vertical transportation of the injected aerosols and radioactive particles. In the middle latitudes the upward electromagnetic drift, created by the eastward electric field, leads to the increase of the NmF2 and TEC due to the plasma transportation to the regions with lower concentration of the neutral molecules and, consequently, with lower loss rate of dominating ions O+ in the ion-molecular reactions. The electric field of the opposite direction (westward) creates the opposite - negative - effect in NmF2 and TEC. In the low latitude regions (near the geomagnetic equator) the increase of the eastward electric field leads to the deepening of the equatorial anomaly minimum (“trough” over the magnetic equator in the latitudinal distribution of electron concentration) due to the intensification of the fountain-effect. To check this hypothesis, the model calculations have been carried out with the use of the UAM (Upper Atmosphere Model) - the global numerical model of the Earth’s upper atmosphere. The electric potential distribution at the near-epicenter region boundary required for the electric field maintenance has been proposed. The upper atmosphere state, presumably foregone a strong earthquake, has been modeled by means of switching-on of additional sources of the electric field in the UAM electric potential equation which was solved numerically jointly with all other UAM equations (continuity, momentum and heat balance) for neutral and ionized gases. The efficiency of the proposed mechanism has been investigated by means of model calculations of the ionosphere response to the action of zonal electric field produced by seismogenic sources located at the middle and low latitudes. The results of the corresponding numerical model calculations of the electric field and its effects in the ionospheric F2-layer and plasmasphere have been presented. They have revealed a fine agreement with TEC anomalies observed before strong earthquakes at the middle and low latitudes both in spatial scales and in amplitude characteristics.