Accessible Tools for Evaluating Variability of Climate Change using Hydrologic Modeling
Abstract
To help municipal and regional managers plan for future climate change, a web based Climate Change Decision Support System (ClimateChangeDSS.com) was designed to allow comparisons of predicted natural streamflow, driving hydrologic models with adjusted climate from selected downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The web based approach allows users who may not have the ability to fund a complete climate change study to evaluate a variety of climate change impacts on hydrologic response and output results for analysis of their water systems under climate change. The USBR CMIP3 downscaled data for 112 GCM model projections across three emissions scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B1) were used in combination with calibrated hydrologic models from the National Weather Service (NWS) to generate climate-changed hydrology for the Colorado River above Lake Powell, South Platte River and Arkansas River in Colorado. Calibrated NWS models are available across the United States, and the DSS is being extended to include additional river basins nationwide. The ClimateChangeDSS supports a planning-period approach, where the simulated natural flows for a historical period are compared against a simulation of the same period using adjusted inputs reflecting climate change for the future planning period for one or more GCM model projections. For this study, a time-varying approach was developed to evaluate the continuous evolution of the impact of climate change on water supply and the evolution of the variability of supply volume and runoff timing based on an ensemble of GCM projections. The approach involves repeating the planning-period analysis for a sequence of planning periods from 2000 to 2085. The results can give water utilities an indication of how far we might be already along the path toward a specific future condition and a comparison of current and future variability and uncertainty.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFMGC51I0830B
- Keywords:
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- 1807 HYDROLOGY / Climate impacts;
- 1996 INFORMATICS / Web Services