Confirmation of integrated assessment models of climate change (Invited)
Abstract
Integrated assessment (IA) models typically consist of economic and energy system models linked to biophysical models of the climate system. They are often applied to policy questions regarding possible mitigation or adaptation strategies for responding to the climate change issue, and are playing an increasingly important role in climate change policy discourse. This role has brought with it questions about whether, and how, IA models are validated or confirmed. More broadly, we can ask: on what basis should we have confidence in insights gained or conclusions drawn with the aid of such models? Frequently, this question is raised in comparison to methods used for validating biophysical models of the climate system. Differences in both the structure and application of IA models (particularly their economic components) and climate models are under-appreciated, and have important implications for what type of model confirmation can and should be done. I discuss these differences, as well as several similarities, in evaluating current practice in IA model validation and suggesting how that practice could be improved.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFMGC34B..03O
- Keywords:
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- 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE