Towards structured model hierarchies for understanding the arctic system
Abstract
Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in polar climate projections has become a major goal of arctic modeling. These uncertainties derive from variability of the geosphere and biosphere of the high latitudes, from moisture, energy and nutrient fluxes with lower latitudes, from model limitations and from anticipation of a range of societal responses to environmental change. Gaining a clear understanding of the contributions of each of these factors to simulated variability and change is a vexing and difficult problem. Partly in response to this problem, global and regional models of the Arctic are becoming increasingly sophisticated to try to understand the potential contribution of previously unresolved or omitted processes from model integrations. More complete representations of the cryosphere, biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems and societal scenarios are being added to models to understand the Arctic’s behavior as a complex adaptive system. Yet this approach may sometimes be insufficient for understanding complexity and adaptation. For this reason, there is a growing interest in using structured hierarchies of models for understanding the arctic as a whole. Structured model hierarchies use a spectrum of simulated states, ranging from simple, limited-area integrations with minimal biospheric and geospheric processes, up to complete Earth System Models. We will provide examples of model hierarchies from the arctic geosphere and biosphere to demonstrate how a spectrum of modeled states from both global and regional Earth System Models may be used to understand the Arctic as a complex adaptive system.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFMGC23E0959R
- Keywords:
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- 1622 GLOBAL CHANGE / Earth system modeling;
- 3275 MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS / Uncertainty quantification;
- 4430 NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS / Complex systems