A Tool to predict ice growth in Arctic Lakes
Abstract
Winter water availability is essential for oil exploration activities and facilities in Alaska. Water used for the construction of ice roads and pads on the Alaska North Slope primarily comes from lakes and reservoirs. As winter progresses, the ice layer on top of lakes thickens, which in turn reduces the under-ice volume of water. The ability to predict ice growth is an important step in developing adaptive management tools for water permitting and management. Years with less ice cover could allow greater water availability for supporting Arctic transportation networks. Years with greater ice cover would allow earlier adjustments to water use activities to stay within the goals of resource protection and water permitting objectives. In order to stay within compliance and efficiently plan winter activities in an adaptive approach, predicting available water in a lake at the end of winter is fundamental for industry water managers. We developed a numerical tool based on the Stefan equation to predict ice growth in lakes. This tool predicts ice growth during winter months, based on air temperature records. The model provides estimated values based on different temperature scenarios, initial ice thickness, snow depth and typical ice and snow density measurements. The ultimate goal of this effort is to provide water-resource managers valuable information on future ice conditions during winter activities.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFM.C13A0541T
- Keywords:
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- 0746 CRYOSPHERE / Lakes;
- 0798 CRYOSPHERE / Modeling