Global Inventory of Methane Hydrate: How Large is the Threat? (Invited)
Abstract
Methane hydrate is a dark horse in the science of climate change. The volume of methane sequestered in marine sediments is large enough to pose a potential threat, yet the expected contribution to future warming is not known. Part of the uncertainty lies in the poorly understood details of methane release from hydrate. Slow, diffusive loss of methane probably results in oxidation by sulfate and precipitation to CaCO3 in the sediments, with little effect on climate. Conversely, a direct release of methane into the atmosphere is liable to have strong and immediate consequences. Progress in narrowing the possibilities requires a better understanding of the mechanisms responsible for methane release. Improvements are also needed in our estimates of the hydrate inventory, as this sets a limit on the possible response. Several recent estimates of the hydrate inventory have been constructed using mechanistic models. Many of the model parameters (e.g. sedimentation rate and sea floor temperature) can be estimated globally, while others (e.g. vertical fluid flow) are not well known. Available observations can be used to estimate the poorly known parameters, but it is reasonable to question whether the results from a limited number of sites are representative of other locations. Fluid flow is a case in point because most hydrate locations are associated with upward flow. On the other hand, simple models of sediment compaction predict downward flow relative to the sea floor, which acts to impede hydrate formation. A variety of mechanisms can produce upward flow, including time-dependent sedimentation, seafloor topography, subsurface fractures, dehydration of clay minerals and gradual burial of methane hydrate below the stability zone. Each of these mechanisms makes specific predictions for the magnitude of flow and the proportion of sea floor that is likely to be affected. We assess the role of fluid flow on the present-day inventory and show that the current estimates for passive margins are probably too large. Adapting these models to the warm period that preceded the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) suggests that the inventory was not large enough to explain the sudden warming or the associated isotopic excursion. Exceptional circumstances might overturn these conclusions, but the attendant uncertainties raise reasonable questions about the role of methane hydrate in the PETM.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2010
- Bibcode:
- 2010AGUFM.B54D..01B
- Keywords:
-
- 0414 BIOGEOSCIENCES / Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- 0428 BIOGEOSCIENCES / Carbon cycling;
- 0473 BIOGEOSCIENCES / Paleoclimatology and paleoceanography