Impacts of the STMAS cycling data assimilation system on improving hurricane prediction

A data assimilation system - the Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS) has been developed at NOAA/ESRL/Global Systems Division. Using the STMAS data assimilation system, this study will investigate the impacts on analysis and forecast by cycling high-resolution model forecasts as analysis background fields for improving hurricane simulation, including hurricane Katrina (August 2005). The objectives are to assess the capability of the STMAS data assimilation technique in forecasting extreme weather events at very high resolution, and to examine the cycling method (i.e., with updated background information at fine resolution) on improving model initialization and short-term weather forecast, and to understand the formation, structure, and development of a vortex (hurricane). The ultimate goal is to establish an operational framework using the STMAS cycling data assimilation in the future forecasts.