A Pilot Programme for a Weather Risk Attribution Service
Abstract
These days following a damaging weather event the question is usually asked: "Are anthropogenic emissions to blame for this event?" Here we present a pilot programme for estimating the degree to which anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have altered the probability of a severe weather event. This programme uses the climateprediction.net/BOINC distributed computing network to run thousands of time slice simulations of a ∼150km resolution global atmospheric model. Because of upload constraints, limited output is recorded and is focussed on specific regions, but a number of daily regional fields are included. The first step, which will be in full operation by the time of the meeting, is to run simulations over the historical time period from 1959. The second step will be to run simulations over the 2006-2007 period, and then re-run these simulations with the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric greenhouse gas levels and the attributable ocean warming removed. The overall experimental setup and the results from the beta-test of the first step will be presented.
- Publication:
-
AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUSMGC23A..04S
- Keywords:
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- 1610 Atmosphere (0315;
- 0325);
- 1622 Earth system modeling (1225);
- 1637 Regional climate change