Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model for the North Atlantic: SST and Landfall
Abstract
A stochastic North-Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) model has been developed that includes sensitivity to SST and ENSO. The track and genesis components are revised versions of components reported by Hall and Jewson (2007). The model now includes a stochastic representation of maximum-sustained wind speed (Vmax), as the measure of intensity. All model components are based on National Hurricane Center HURDAT “best track” data. The model has been used to generate 5000 realizations of the 1950-2008 period (using historical SST and ENSO), as well as 1000-year simulations in various fixed “climate states” (fixed values for SST and ENSO). Several diagnostics are used to evaluate the model, including landfall rates on various regions of the US east and Gulf coasts. Overall, the number of US landfalls rises with SST. However, the SST-landfall sensitivity varies with geographic region and with storm intensity.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUFMNH54B..05H
- Keywords:
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- 1630 GLOBAL CHANGE / Impacts of global change;
- 3265 MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS / Stochastic processes;
- 3374 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES / Tropical meteorology