Scientific Challenges in Developing the Next Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Abstract
The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) is in the process of developing the next-generation Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF version 3). The main goals for this future model, which is being developed jointly by the United States Geological Survey, California Geological Survey, and Southern California Earthquake Center, are to include multi-fault ruptures and spatial and temporal clustering. While there are broad range of challenges associated with the development, implementation, and use of this model, the intent of this presentation is to give an overview of some of the most pressing scientific issues. These questions can be distilled down as follows: 1) Does every small volume of space exhibit a Gutenberg Richter distribution of nucleations?; 2) What is the average slip distribution of large events, both down dip and along strike?; 3) How do we apply elastic rebound in an un-segmented fault model?; 4) How can we quantify fault-to-fault rupture probabilities, especially give uncertainties in fault endpoints?; 5) What constitutes “best available science” with respect to spatial and temporal clustering models?; and 6) What is the explanation for the apparent post-1906 seismicity-rate reduction? Each of these questions will be described and exemplified, together with our current plans for addressing them.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUFM.S43C..01F
- Keywords:
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- 7221 SEISMOLOGY / Paleoseismology;
- 7223 SEISMOLOGY / Earthquake interaction;
- forecasting;
- and prediction;
- 7230 SEISMOLOGY / Seismicity and tectonics