Past Sea Level Reconstruction and Variability of Sea Level Trend Patterns over 1958-2005 in the Mediterranean Sea basin

For the past decades, there are no direct basin-scale observations informing on the spatial trend patterns in Mediterranean sea level. Yet it is important to know the dominant modes of regional variability on interannual/decadal/multidecadal time scale in the Mediterranean basin and their driving mechanisms. For that purpose, we have developed a reconstruction method of past Mediterranean sea level (since 1958) that combines long tide gauge records of limited coverage and 2-D sea level patterns based on runs from two different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). Instead of using 2-D spatial patterns from satellite altimetry (as done in previous studies; e.g., Calafat et al., 2009), here we prefer to use OGCM runs on the past few decades on the assumption that they better capture the decadal variability of the spatial trend patterns. The two OGCMs considered are the ORCA05 run (without data assimilation) over 1958-2005 available from the DRAKKAR project and the SODA reanalyse over 1958-2005 available from GODAE (Carton et al., 2008), assimilating all available in situ temperature, salinity and sea level data. The two sea level reconstructions are compared to each other as well as with previous studies (e.g., Calafat et al., 2009). The dominant modes of temporal variability are discussed and sea level hindcasts at tide gauge sites not used in the analysis are compared to actual observations. Comparisons with steric sea level patterns based on in situ hydrographic data are also presented and discussed with regard to the conclusions of past studies based on tide gauge records analysis.