Estimating Future Potential for Offshore Wind in Europe using Dynamical Downscaling
Abstract
Some studies have suggested that regions in Europe and the North Sea have great potential for offshore wind energy. Offshore studies are relatively new compared to the vast amount of literature concerning onshore wind. New offshore techniques have been tried out to place wind turbines not only on the typical 20km-distance from the shore, but to be used far away from the coastline. These new sites are optimal due to the reduced roughness, which results in higher wind speeds and better wind power production. We will present dynamical downscaled data (grid spacing of 50km) for the AR4-A1B scenario for northern Europe. Sea surface temperature data from four global circulation models have forced the downscaling for the period 2020-2060. For a realistic ice-edge in the simulations, the climate signal from the scenario runs was added to SST from the ERA40 reanalysis data. The ARPEGE model was used for the simulations on a global scale using a stretched grid with the pole focused in the Norwegian Sea. The grid spacing is about 50km in northern Europe. Results will be shown with respect to a control climatology for the period of 1980 to 1999. Wind power was estimated based on the power output profile of a hypothetical turbine. The power curve was approximated using splines and applied to the dataset. The calculations were made for wind at a 100m hub height. Consideration of 4 classes of wind will be presented in order to consider major changes in wind class. These classes were created based on the typical cut-in, cut-out and nominal speeds of the hypothetical turbine.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUFM.A31F0180B
- Keywords:
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- 1626 GLOBAL CHANGE / Global climate models;
- 3355 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES / Regional modeling;
- 9335 GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION / Europe