The advance time for solar cycle prediction using a "standard" method
Abstract
For long-term forecasting of a cycle of solar activity by a standard method (Russian State Standard 25645.302-83, below RSS) it is necessary to know the moment of approaching a minimum of solar activity, which definition is inconvenient on a descent phase of the previous cycle. The dependence of an error of the long-term forecast on time of shift t relative to the moment of a minimum of solar activity is investigated, i.e. when an initial point for calculations becomes not the exact moment of a minimum of solar activity, but a moment some time before its approaching. It has been shown, that the forecast in accordance with RSS did not require exact knowledge of the moment of approaching a minimum of activity and was possible approximately with an identical error with advance time t 1 year and more before a minimum of activity. The analysis of dependence of prognostic values Wmax on t for cycles 18- 23 has shown, that at small (up to 1 year) uncertainties of time of approaching of a minimum of activity the prognostic values Wmax appear to be overestimated. In the assumption, that the 24-th cycle has begun in April, 2007, the predicted value Wmax = 96 ± 13 has been obtained.
- Publication:
-
37th COSPAR Scientific Assembly
- Pub Date:
- 2008
- Bibcode:
- 2008cosp...37.2254N