Interannual Predictions of Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes
Abstract
RMS produces software that a large part of the insurance industry uses to set insurance rates in hurricane-prone regions in the US. An important input to our product is the expected number of annually averaged hurricanes making landfall over the next five years. Our approach to the hurricane number prediction has two steps. First, we build a large number of models that make this prediction, based on inputs such as historical hurricane numbers in the Atlantic basin and at landfall, historical SSTs, and IPCC climate model output. Second, we ask a group of hurricane experts to weigh the predictions from these models. In this presentation, we discuss some of the models that are used in this process. We also very briefly present the results of the expert elicitation that was carried out in 2007. The principal result from that elicitation is that the expected number of hurricanes making landfall in the US is significantly higher than the long-term historical average since 1900.
- Publication:
-
AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2008
- Bibcode:
- 2008AGUSM.U33C..02C
- Keywords:
-
- 1610 Atmosphere (0315;
- 0325);
- 1616 Climate variability (1635;
- 3305;
- 3309;
- 4215;
- 4513);
- 1630 Impacts of global change (1225);
- 3238 Prediction (3245;
- 4263);
- 3305 Climate change and variability (1616;
- 1635;
- 3309;
- 4215;
- 4513)