Toward the application of forward models of tree-ring proxies to paleoclimatology

Mechanistic models which explicitly simulate the biophysical relationship between climate and the formation of tree-ring proxies can complement and perhaps extend the use of empirical statistical methods in dendrochronology. Here, we explore the application of this class of models to challenges in the use of tree- rings for paleoclimatology. We examine the merits of different theoretical and practical approaches to simulating the multivariate and potentially nonlinear association between climate variability and tree biology. We include discussion of the importance of connecting these processes to the complementary challenge of accounting for nonclimatic influences on patterns of radial growth. We discuss new applications of tree-ring forward models at high elevation and high latitudes, their integration with general circulation models, and their deployment within a probabilistic framework that includes Bayesian Hierarchical Models.