North Atlantic Hurricane Activity Records: 1851-2008

An analysis of hurricane data (HURDAT), using a hurricane activity index that integrates over the hurricane numbers, duration and strength during the years 1851-2008, suggests a quasi-periodic behavior with a period around 60 years superimposed upon a linearly increasing background. The periodic-like behavior is persistent in uncorrected HURDAT data as well as in data corrected for possible missing storms. The records contain two complete cycles: 1860-1920 and 1920-1980. Intense hurricane seasons of 2004, 2005 and 2008 are close to expected hurricane activity maximum to occur around the year 2010. Comparing the last 29 years (1980-2008) with the preceding 29 years (1952-1980) we find a modest increase in hurricane numbers in category 1 and 2, however, no increase in the number of major hurricanes (category 3 to 5).