Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion: Past, Present, and Future Scenarios
Abstract
Coastal sea level rise and fall are governed deterministically by the astronomical tides and stochastically by a host of other factors. Coastal storms occur stochastically. True rates of temporal variability and trends of both sea level variability and storm occurrence, over local to regional scales are not presently identically known, in spite of the extensive existing literature. One of the outcomes of sea level variability superimposed on an overall rise in the presence of coastal storms, given human altered coastal areas, is increased landward coastal erosion. In order to more properly project future rates of coastal erosion, one must have a solid understanding not only of past and present overall rates of sea level rise, but also on the variability inherent in sea level and on the relationship between sea level and coastal storms. This information is of great value to coastal stakeholders, including managers, builders, planners, developers, residents, and public officials. Seasonal and annual variations of the order of several tens of cm in sea level will be revealed, the erosion of coastal areas both natural and human altered will be addressed, and put in the context of strategies for building in coastal areas. Finally and by way of example, the scope and extent of storm induced surge, inland flooding and coastal erosion for different sea level rise scenarios out to fifty years will be presented for selected mid-latitude United States eastern Atlantic seaboard locales.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2008
- Bibcode:
- 2008AGUFM.A53E0325P
- Keywords:
-
- 4500 OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL