An integrated climate service strategy for African drought monitoring and prediction: linking information to action

For 23 years, the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has applied climate data analysis in support of timely food insecurity mitigation and adaptation in Africa. FEWS NET, therefore, provides a compelling example of a sector-specific climate service. We briefly review the phases, successes and shortcomings of the FEWS NET climate service, describe an improved long term climate service strategy, and present new research supporting an improved, integrated drought monitoring approach. Our new monitoring system emphasizes seamless links between historical precipitation archives, near real-time rainfall estimates, and 1-to-4 month statistical predictions. Assessment of forecast skill shows useful levels of accuracy for many regions during key periods of the growing season. Integrating these forecasts with near real time blended satellite-gauge precipitation observations facilitates early identification of mid-season agricultural drought. Integrated historical climate archives (1979-present) permit analysis of observed and forecast climate conditions in terms of historical probabilities and analogs. Tools specific to staple crops and pastoralist settings are then used to assess the likely impacts of hydrometeorological anomalies. These are geographically integrated with livelihoods information and interpreted in terms of current food security conditions and timelines to determine human consequences. A client-server web-mapping data portal will allow users to dynamically access the climate anomaly information, and visualize the results in conjunction with livelihood information.