Does the h index have predictive power?
Abstract
Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h index compared with other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h index.
- Publication:
-
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
- Pub Date:
- December 2007
- DOI:
- 10.1073/pnas.0707962104
- arXiv:
- arXiv:0708.0646
- Bibcode:
- 2007PNAS..10419193H
- Keywords:
-
- Physics - Physics and Society;
- Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics;
- High Energy Physics - Theory
- E-Print:
- Sect. V added on combining h and N_c, with new Fig. 11. Other minor changes. To be published in PNAS