ENSO and NAO as Markov chains: runs of states
Abstract
We use a simple three-state Markov chain model in order to study the number of runs or spells of hot, cold and neutral months for El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as reported in the page http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ClimateIndices/List/. We discuss the fit of the Markovian model to both phenomena and the differences between the run statistics (proportions of the number of runs over the number of transitions and over the total number of runs) for ENSO and NAO.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2007
- Bibcode:
- 2007AGUFMOS13A1016P
- Keywords:
-
- 0430 Computational methods and data processing;
- 0434 Data sets;
- 3245 Probabilistic forecasting (3238);
- 3265 Stochastic processes (3235;
- 4468;
- 4475;
- 7857)