Some Coolness on Martian Global Warming and Reflections on the Role of Surface Dust

Recent comparisons of global snap-shots of Mars' surface taken by the Viking and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) cameras have been used to suggest that Mars has darkened, and hence has warmed, between the 1970's and 1990's. While this conclusion is not supported by more quantitative analysis of albedo data, the idea of Martian darkening and warming has found its way into the terrestrial climate change debate. Through blogs and other opinion pieces it has been used, both amusingly and disturbingly, to argue that Mars' apparent natural warming should alleviate our concerns about anthropomorphic climate change on Earth. Relating planetary research results to terrestrial analogs is instructive and promotes public understanding, but this example provides a cautionary tale of misinterpretation in this age of politicized science. The dust cycle is the dominant short-term component of the Martian climate. The atmosphere is strongly forced via dust's modification of atmospheric radiative heating rates, while dust loading displays dramatic interannual variability, from background opacity to aperiodic global dust storms. Until recently, the atmospheric component of the dust cycle was better documented than the surface component (which on Mars can be gauged via albedo). But now thanks to the combination of regional imaging, spot thermal infrared spectra, and spot short-wavelength photometry sampled at synoptic time and length scales by MGS, a rich new view of the relationship between specific meteorological phenomena and the patterns of surface dust is emerging. Seasonal cap winds, local, regional, and global dust storms, and monsoonal circulations all redistribute surface dust on large spatial scales, while dust devils are surprisingly shown to be insignificant. Rapid and widespread albedo modification is accomplished by storms that darken relatively bright regions through dust removal, and deposit dust upon largely dust free areas, brightening them. (It is not possible with existing data to infer dust deposition or erosion in perennially dusty areas.) However, most of the dust deposited on darker regions is removed within one Martian year. This rapid cleaning suggests that darker areas retain their dust-free albedo over decadal time scales because any dust deposited there can be eroded at commonly experienced wind speeds. Bright regions recover more slowly, sometimes requiring several martian years. The depletion of these dust sources in some years may play an important role in the interannual variability in dust storm occurrence and intensity by introducing a multiyear "memory" into the system. The observation of the 2001 global storm and its wake allows predictions to be made for the recovery following the 2007 global storm: the southern hemisphere should retain a transient brightening until after the seasonal cap has advanced and retreated. The MGS data show that albedo is a dynamic and evolving meteorologically and climatologically active variable, not a static boundary condition. Overall, the major story that albedo has to tell is one of major dust storms and recovery from them - not of secular changes - and that the changes are mostly cyclic such that surfaces tend to return to their pre-storm albedos. We speculate that this system of fine balances is dynamically controlled, such that interannual occurrence of dust storms and the partial dust coating of the surface should be robust against the expected large changes of orbital parameters throughout Martian geological history.