Predictive Phenologic Modeling Using MODIS: A Tool for Rangeland Management

Grazing is the predominant land use activity in the rangelands of the Inter-Mountain West. Vegetation phenology affects the impact of grazing; new plant growth is especially palatable to grazing animals. Over time, preferential grazing gives less palatable plants an advantage in rooting depth and may alter the composition of plant species and lead to soil erosion. The benefits of using remote spectral imagery to predict the onset and advancement of the phenologic phases for expansive and/or inaccessible areas is recognized, however, the practical application of this technology has been limited. A time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) vegetation indices was analyzed to identify the temporal profile of the growing season for surface vegetation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Drivers to which the progression of phenologic transition dates are most responsive were explored. Using phenological parameters defined from the MODIS time series and relationships of the phenological transition dates to the drivers, a predictive phenological model specific to the environmental parameters of the UCRB was developed. This model can be implemented at various spatial extents and temporal windows as part of a rangeland management strategy.